When the United States announced it would suspend immigrant visa processing for citizens of 75 countries, effective from January 21, 2026, the reaction in polite society was predictable. It was painted as dramatic, harsh, perhaps even cruel. But Washington was not making a moral statement. It was making an accounting one.
The devil, as always, is in the detail. The US State Department’s list includes Pakistan and Bangladesh—countries where data suggests entrants are more likely to rely on public assistance. Conspicuous by its absence, however, is India.
The distinction is not random; it is calculated. American policymakers have recognised a cold economic reality: Indian immigrants are, on average, high-earning net contributors who bolster the tax base. Entrants from the suspended nations, statistically, are more likely to cost the state more than they contribute in their initial years.
The message is simple: if a country cannot adequately support the people it already has, it must select new arrivals based on their ability to pay their own way.
Britain would do well to stop clutching its pearls and start checking its pockets.
This is not a debate about compassion. It is a debate about capacity. The UK today is struggling to house, heal, and care for its own population. We have become a nation of queues. In 2025, a staggering 1.75 million patients waited over 12 hours in A&E before being admitted. That is one in ten attendances. We call it “corridor care” to soften the blow, but rhetorical agility does not conjure extra beds.
Housing offers an even bleaker picture. In the 2024-25 financial year, England delivered just 208,600 net additional homes, a 6% drop from the previous year. We are adding population at the rate of a major city, yet building at a pace that barely covers demolition.
Critics will point out that net migration has fallen from its peak of 906,000 to around 204,000. But the aggregate number hides the real story. Who is coming, and can they support themselves?
The US example shows us that nationality and visa route matter. The Migration Advisory Committee’s December 2025 report offers a British parallel. It projects that the 2022-23 cohort of Skilled Workers—a route dominated by Indian IT and finance professionals—will contribute a massive £47 billion to the public purse over their lifetimes. That is the system working.
By contrast, other routes are a fiscal drain. Low-paid care workers are projected to have a lifetime fiscal cost of £36,000 per person, and dependents often represent a net negative. In a country where social care vacancies still sit at 111,000, admitting migrants who are likely to be net recipients of state support is not kindness. It is poor governance.
The US has drawn a line based on data. Britain prefers to rely on the comforting fiction that we can be everything to everyone. We attempt to promise Scandinavian public services on Mediterranean tax rates, while our immigration policy operates with a blindfold on.
A serious British immigration policy would replicate the American logic. It would be “surgical,” not a blunderbuss.
- Differentiate by Data: Just as the US distinguished between India and its neighbours based on fiscal track records, the UK should use data to identify which specific routes and nationalities consistently deliver net contributions versus those that strain public services.
- Proof of Funds: We must demand stronger proof of employment, realistic salary thresholds, and credible evidence of savings. Migrants should be contributing from week one, not arriving with an application for Universal Credit in their suitcase.
- Dynamic Quotas: If we need seasonal workers, create targeted, temporary routes with clear return rules—not open-ended pathways to settlement that bypass scrutiny.
Policy must operate like gardening: you prune where overcrowding chokes the bed, and you plant where growth is desired.
The US has accepted that economic pressure requires hard choices. It has looked at the spreadsheet and acted accordingly. Britain, by contrast, relies on hope. Unfortunately, hope is not a funding model, and fingers crossed are not infrastructure.
Immigration policy must serve the national interest and the people already here. That means applying the same scrutiny to visa decisions that we apply to pensioners claiming winter fuel payments. Until we do, the system will remain generous in theory, but broken in practice.
References
- US will suspend immigrant visa processing from 75 countries over public assistance concerns, AP News https://apnews.com/article/trump-immigration-visas-79909bd01e9e1e3dedde144f865a1b9d
- The full list of 75 countries where Trump is suspending visa processing, The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/14/full-list-75-countries-visa-processing-suspended - A&E Attendances and Emergency Admissions, NHS
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/ae-waiting-times-and-activity/ - Net migration roller-coaster ride sees record fall from record peakhttps://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/press/net-migration-roller-coaster-ride-sees-record-fall-from-record-peak
- MAC Report December 2025: Skilled Worker Visas & UK Tax https://www.davidsonmorris.com/mac-report-december-2025/
