By Sant Kumar Sharma
On April 23, within 24 hours of the Baisaran (Pahalgam) massacre of 26 Hindu and Christian tourists, Pakistan got a shocker. This was the announcement by Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri that the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) was being put in abeyance immediately. The costs imposed on Pakistan for backing terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir have never been higher.
India’s immediate action in response to Pahalgam terror attack which targeted innocent tourists based on their religion was to put Indus water treaty into abeyance. It didn’t happen when surgical strikes were conducted in September 2016 after the Uri killings of Indian soldiers. Not when Balakot aerial strikes were conducted in February 2019 after the Pulwama blast. Not when Pakistan’s Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status was withdrawn that year. However, the Indian government acted on its warning that blood and water cannot go together, way back in 2016.
Blood and Water cannot flow together. – MEA, Government of India. https://youtu.be/36839_EL-ZY?feature=shared
What does the IWT abeyance mean for Pakistan? India stopped supplying data of different types regarding the rivers on from that very day. This data was collected at 90 points on the Eastern Rivers allotted to India and over 190 points on the Western Rivers allotted to Pakistan under IWT. How does that matter? The regular sharing of this data by India helped the neighbour plan its agricultural operations, flood mitigation measures, and so much more. However, A small matter of an additional detail may help understand things better. The schedule of operations of most Pakistani canals for irrigation was drawn based on this data.
In terms of the quantum of water flowing into Pakistan from any of the six rivers of the Indus system, they have not diminished an iota. But they sure will. This worry about the future is a deadly psychological blow that it has to contend with.
Unfair Division
Under the IWT 1960, Sutlej, Beas and Ravi, with mean annual flows of 32.7 Million Acre Feet (MAF), are called the Eastern Rivers. Chenab, Jhelum and Indus, called Western Rivers, have mean annual flows of 135.6 MAF. Thus, India gets only 32.7 MAF and Pakistan gets 135.6 MAF of water from the Indus system. In percentage terms, it comes to less than 20 for India, and more than 80 for Pakistan.
Yes, this is how favourable the Treaty is in terms of the allocation of quantities of water to Pakistan. Yet, India generously accepted it apparently “to buy peace’’ with a recalcitrant neighbour. In the false hope that a grateful Pakistan will stop troubling Bharat in the future. Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru, who had signed the Treaty, admitted as much to N D Gulhati on his last day in service in the year 1961. By that time, Pakistani dictator General Ayub Khan had talked a number of times about the need to gain control over the upper stems of rivers flowing into his country.
When negotiations open between India and Pakistan, on some future date, to work out IWT 2.0, India needs to insist on a more equitable division of river waters as a starting point. Appropriating for its use some portions of the waters flowing in the Western Rivers needs to be considered. Reserving all flows of Chenab for India’s use also needs to be discussed.
So that the allocation of waters can become something like 60 and 40 per cent, instead of 80 and 20 as per the 1960 IWT, as stated above.
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Tulbul Navigation Project
This project, started in 1984, was aimed at improving navigation in the Jhelum river between Sopore and Baramulla, a 20-km stretch, by putting a navigation lock in Wular Lake. Dredging Wular Lake to the size that existed on September 19, 1960, when the IWT was signed, can easily accomplish this. However, due to Pakistan’s objections, it had remained stalled for decades.
With IWT in abeyance, the policy planners in New Delhi have allotted Rs 100 crore initially to open an office of the Inland Waterways Authority of India (IWAI) in Jammu & Kashmir. This office started functioning on May 13 at Transport Bhavan in Srinagar. It is now working on establishing some waterways on the Jhelum and raising the necessary infrastructure.
According to sources, it may take four working seasons for all work on the Tulbul Navigation Project to be completed. Of course, the work on the project has already started and is being monitored at the highest levels, both within J&K and in Delhi. Incidentally, this is a project Chief Minister Omar Abdullah had talked about after the Treaty was put in abeyance.
Sediment Clearing
Once the Treaty was put in abeyance, necessary orders were issued, and sediment clearing from all the hydropower projects was undertaken. These projects included Salal, Baglihar, Lower Jhelum, Uri I and Kishenganga. Due to heavy sediment load carried by the Himalayan rivers, the reservoirs lose their holding capacity as they get filled up. It may be mentioned here that the capacity of Salal had degraded by almost 10 percent of what it was in the initial days.
Under the Treaty, sediment flushing was a major point of contestation between India and Pakistan on all hydropower projects on Chenab, Jhelum and Indus. Though it suffered heavy economic losses, India did not do a sediment flushing of most of these projects to try to satisfy Pakistan earlier. Sediment flushing by India was done only in the peak monsoon season, usually late July or early August.
It needs to be mentioned here that the power production in all projects has improved substantially after the sediment clearing. Right now, clearing even more sediments in all hydropower projects is on the cards, and the government is exploring advanced technologies to be deployed.
Completion of Projects
A number of projects like the 850 MegaWatt (MW) Ratle Hydropower Project, facing problems because of Pakistan’s objections, have been fast-tracked. This project was inaugurated on May 29, 2013, by then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and was to be completed in five years. However, it was abandoned by the private company constructing it, due mainly to Pakistan’s hue and cry. With great difficulty, it was revived later, but Pakistan had again tried to stall it.
A year ago, Neutral Expert Michel Lino had visited the project site along with Indian and Pakistani delegations. But with the Treaty out of the way, there is no stopping or stalling it this time. On the Kishanganga project, too, there will be no further hearings or visits by the Neutral Expert.
Some other projects like Bursar and Sawalakote on Chenab are now on the table, with the government keen to mobilise funds, manpower and material, after brushing aside the Pakistan factor. All these projects will add millions of units of clean energy to India’s kitty and help meet its growing needs. For Pakistan, the nightmare continues.
